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NOVEMBER 22,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

PATHETIC – from London's Telegraph:   French patrol planes are scouring the seas off Scotland for a Russian submarine after Britain was forced to call on allies for help because it has scrapped its own sub-hunting aircraft.  A French Atlantique 2 maritime patrol plane has been searching for the submarine for at least 10 days, since the vessel was detected north of Scotland...Britain scrapped its own Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft after the cost cutting 2010 defence review, leading to warnings from defence chiefs that the country would be left reliant on others for aircraft to search its own waters.  Nothing like a nation advertising its weakness.

THE MAN WHO REALLY SHOULDN'T BE KING – From London's Telegraph:   Asked by Royal Correspondent Rhiannon Mills if there was a direct link between climate change, conflict and terrorism, the heir to the throne replied:  “It's only in the last few years that the Pentagon have actually started to pay attention to this. I mean it has a huge impact on what is happening. I mean the difficulty is sometimes to get this point across – that if we just leave it and say, well there are obviously lots of, there are endless problems arising all over the place therefore we deal with them in a short term way, we never deal with the underlying root cause which regrettably is what we're doing to our natural environment."  The Prince is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the United Nations climate change conference or COP21 in Paris next week. A nice fellow, but I hope his mommy lives a long time.

SIGN OF OUR TIMES – From Fox:   NEW YORK – Hundreds of emergency responders simulated a subway terror attack on Sunday, days before one of the city's biggest public events: the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.  The long-planned drill at a Manhattan station got a last-minute update in the wake of the deadly attacks in Paris. Officials added an "attacker" wearing a suicide vest.  "In New York City, we are, at this time, very well-prepared and continually improving that preparedness," Police Commissioner William Bratton said outside the abandoned Bowery station in lower Manhattan.  It's getting a little creepy in New York.  I'd be happier if Rudy Guiliani were in City Hall.

PERSONNEL NEWS – From CBS:   ATLANTA (CBS News) — Lawyers have the lowest health and well-being among all white-collar workers, according to a new study.  The research also indicates that those working in law are the highest users and abusers of alcohol and nicotine, as reported by AFR Weekend.  The PsychSafe study looked at more than 800 professionals, including 370 lawyers from firms and the bar, and 170 lawyers who work in government or in-house counsel.  The findings suggest that lawyers who work in law firms have the lowest psychological and psychosomatic health and well-being. Researchers say this is likely attributed to stressful workloads, overtime, and pressure.  And also to defending people they really wouldn't want in their homes.

November 22, 2015       Permalink

LOWER GAS PRICES FOR THANKSGIVING – AT 12:31 P.M. ET:   This will probably help the Democrats, but it's a pleasant development anyway.  Lower gas prices for the holidays.  From CNN:

Driving over the river and through the woods will be quite a bit cheaper this Thanksgiving, thanks to rapidly falling gas prices.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas is $2.13 according to AAA, down 75 cents from a year ago. That decline means consumers will save about $7 billion on gas during the 37-day period between now and Christmas, or about $40 a driver.

And prices are expected to keep falling.

Gas is already below $2 a gallon at 44% of stations nationwide, according to Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at both GasBuddy and the Oil Price Information Service, which tracks prices for AAA. Prices are below $1.59 a gallon in states such as Ohio, Texas and Oklahoma, according to GasBuddy.com.

Kloza expects most stations in the U.S. will be below $2 by the weekend, and that the national average will break the $2 mark by Christmas or early January. The average price of gas hasn't been that cheap since 2009.

Oil prices fell below $40 a barrel for the first time since August on Wednesday, and are near a six-year low. The slide has been caused by a glut of oil thanks to record U.S. production, sluggish demand in Asia and Europe due to economic weakness, as well as a strong dollar.

COMMENT:  There's a downside to this, besides the help it will give to Dems in the campaign.  Low prices mean less funding available to oil companies for new exploration and development.  We hope this nation will be energy-independent by 2020, but that goal can be set back if oil production is cut because of low revenues.

November 22, 2015       Permalink

THE GOP RACE – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  Very interesting numbers from Fox:

GOP front-runner Donald Trump widens his lead in the nomination race, while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz threaten to overtake Ben Carson for the number two spot.

Those four once again constitute the top tier in the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election.

In addition, Rubio joins Carson as the only candidates at least half of voters say are honest and trustworthy -- though Carson’s honesty rating has taken a hit. More on that later.

First, here’s how the GOP race stands: Trump remains in the top spot with a record 28 percent support from Republican primary voters. He was at 26 percent in the last Fox poll, which was completed before the last debate and the Paris attacks (November 1-3, 20att15).

Carson drops from 23 percent to 18 percent in the new poll. Cruz and Rubio are both up three points and garner 14 percent each.

All others are in the low single digits: Jeb Bush gets 5 percent, while Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee each get 3 percent. John Kasich and Rand Paul receive 2 percent a piece.

COMMENT:  What we may be seeing here is the triumph of conventional wisdom.  Conventional wisdom holds that the two "outsiders" – Trump and Carson – will fight it out for "outsider champ."  Then the two leading office holders – Rubio and Cruz – will battle for "insider champ."  Then the outsider champ and insider champ will battle each other for the nomination.

Makes sense to me.

I think Trump will easily win the "outsider" title.  Carson is stumbling badly, and that's showing up in the polls.  Trump himself has made some progress, but nowhere near enough to assure nomination.

Cruz and Rubio are the fascinating ones.  I believe Rubio is far more electable than Cruz, but Cruz is dazzlingly brilliant.  Both men could defeat Hillary Clinton in a debate, but Cruz would have her for lunch.

Trump vs. Rubio or Trump vs. Cruz for the nomination?  Who will win?  The conventional betting is on Rubio or Cruz defeating Trump...but possibly at a brokered convention.  Who will be the nominee?  If the scenario just presented plays out, the conventional betting is on Rubio, because the GOP establishment will work overtime to stop Cruz, whom it despises. 

But never assume the conventional wisdom will prevail.  And this is a weird campaign.

November 22, 2015      Permalink

TERRORISM WAY UP AS ELECTION ISSUE – AT 11:16 A.M. ET:  Obviously, this can change over the coming months, depending on events, but terrorism is once again a major political issue.  From ABC News: 

Terrorism suddenly rivals the economy as the single most important issue to Americans in the 2016 presidential election -- and a year out, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds more people paying close attention to the contest than at this point in any race back to 1988.

After years of dominating the political landscape, the economy now has company. Given the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris, 28 percent of Americans now call terrorism the top issue in their choice for president, compared with 33 percent who cite the economy. Nothing else comes close.

Attention, moreover, is focused as never before. Three-quarters of Americans say they are closely following the 2016 race, including three in 10 who are following it very closely. That’s the highest level of attention at this point in a presidential race in polls back nearly 30 years.

COMMENT:  Caution – don't assume that concern for national security will favor the Republicans.  It will depend on who the GOP candidate is, and his or her approach to the issue.  Outbursts and sound bites are not enough.  Voters must have confidence in the candidate.  And the role of the media will be to build up confidence in Hillary Clinton and destroy confidence in her Republican opponent.  That's the way the game is played.

November 22,  2015     Permalink

NOVEMBER 21,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

DEM WINS LOUISIANA GOVERNOR RACE – From thenewsstar.com:   NEW ORLEANS — State Rep. John Bel Edwards won Louisiana’s highest elected office Saturday night, defeating two-term U.S. Sen. David Vitter for governor in what would have been an unthinkable upset a few months ago.  Edwards is a Democrat, who's just won in a reliably Republican state.  However, Dems should not celebrate too wildly.  He ran as a conservative Democrat, and I suspect the name "Obama" was rarely if ever invoked.  Vitter was a problematical Republican candidate, with more baggage than American Airlines.  Edwards will succeed the great Bobby Jindal.

SINCERITY ALERT – From theamericanmirror.com:   Hillary Clinton campaigned in Memphis, Tennessee yesterday and Huma Abedin didn’t forget to pack the candidate’s fake southern accent.  It took Clinton only about 50 seconds to unpack it before a crowd at LeMoyne-Owen College.  “I gotta tell you,” Hillary said with a distinct drawl, “I loved coming to Memphis in the past.  “You know, I didn’t live too far away for a long time, just across the river. Do we have anybody from Arkansas here toniiiiight?” she asked.  “Now, after the 2008 election, then president-elect Obama called me and asked me to come see him in Chicagooooo,” Clinton said.  Look, she fakes everything else.  Why not the accent?

THREAT TO ATLANTA? – From wsbtv.com:  ATLANTA — FBI officials have confirmed to Channel 2 Action News that they are taking seriously a report about an ISIS threat at a WWE Survivor Series event in Atlanta on Sunday.  The FBI released the following statement to Channel 2 Action News:  "The FBI is aware of reports of an alleged threat that includes an Atlanta, Georgia venue and event. While we take all threats seriously, we do not have specific or credible information of an attack at this time. We have, however, made the proper notifications as we continue to work closely with our law enforcement and private sector partners to keep our community safe."  The hacker group Anonymous said Saturday that it had uncovered information about Islamic State group attacks in Paris as well as locations in the U.S.  They're taking the Anonymous report very seriously in Europe.  No way for us to assess the accuracy of the warning.  ISIS, though, will want to keep up its terror campaign just to prove itself and show its ability to sustain multiple attacks.

November 21, 2015       Permalink

THE OBAMA WE NOW KNOW – AT 11:44 A.M. ET:  One of the most disgraceful things about Barack Obama is his clear contempt for his own country.  There were plenty of warnings about this, even in 2008, but a reckless news media refused to notice.   Obama was their 1960s dream.  He was Barack, come to save us.

We don't hear much talk these days about Obama saving anything.  Indeed, even among liberals I know, I've seen a change. 

Obama's newest crusade is to bring Syrian refugees to America, despite concerns about the vetting process that may allow jihadists to slip in with them.  (I've heard no serious opposition to bringing women and children.  But an inordinate number of "refugees" seem to be men of fighting age.)  The AP, in a surprisingly blunt story, details Obama's current maneuvers, which fly in the face of public opinion:

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Brushing off refugee worries at home, President Barack Obama crouched alongside migrant children on Saturday and declared they are the opposite of terrorists wreaking havoc from Paris to Mali. Working to put a human face on the refugee crisis, he said, "They're just like our kids."

The refugees Obama encountered at a school for poor children in Malaysia were not from Syria, and unlike the flood of Syrians meeting steep resistance in the U.S., these migrants had already been cleared to resettle in America. Still, Obama said their faces could have been those of kids from Syria, Iraq and other war-torn regions whose pursuit of a life free from violence led them far from their native homes.

"They were indistinguishable from any child in America," Obama said. "The notion that somehow we would be fearful of them — that our politics would somehow lead us to turn our sights away from their plight — is not representative of the best of who we are."

How utterly cynical, how profoundly dishonest.  It isn't the children Americans are worried about.  Is there no end to this man's contemptible behavior?

More than mere musings, Obama's comments were intended as a direct rebuke to those demanding a halt to Syrian and Iraqi refugees entering the U.S. in the light of the Islamic State's attacks in Paris. Obama said the U.S. had shown it can welcome refugees while ensuring security. "There's no contradiction," he said.

But the FBI director says we don't have the resources to do proper vetting.  How about that, Barack?

Many Americans seem to disagree. Democrats in large numbers have abandoned their president and his opposition to stiffer screening measures; forty-seven of them voted against Obama on Thursday. Having secured a veto-proof majority in the House, supporters are now hoping for a repeat in the Senate, while Obama works to shift the conversation to milder visa waiver changes that wouldn't affect Syrian refugees.

COMMENT:  I truly worry about Obama's last year in office.  The damage this man can do!  The worst fears about him may prove to be correct.

And what happens if there's a major terrorist attack in the United States?  Who will Obama blame?  Certainly not himself.  I can just see him standing there, trying to minimize the event by comparing it to deaths in auto accidents or gun accidents. 

I wish removing a president were easier.  Obama is a risk to this country and its people.

November 21, 2015       Permalink

BRUSSELS ON EDGE – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:    Belgium has raised its terror alert to the highest level.  This looks very real, and very serious.  From Fox: 

Americans in Belgium were ordered “to shelter in place” Saturday after local authorities warned that the threat of a terrorist attack in the country’s capital is serious and imminent.

The U.S. Embassy in Brussels also ordered American citizens to remain at home as the city was placed on lockdown in response to the terrorist threat. The national crisis center raised its terrorism alert Saturday to its highest level as Belgian police continued to search for a suspect in the Paris attacks that killed 130 people.

In a statement on its website Saturday the embassy informed Americans that “if you must go out, avoid large crowds.”

The warning also urged U.S. citizens to “exercise caution in public transportation systems, sporting events, residential areas, business offices, shopping malls and other tourist destinations.”

Belgian leaders raised the terrorism alert to Level 4, which indicates a “serious and immediate threat.”

Prime Minister Charles Michel said the decision to raise the alert level was taken "based on quite precise information about the risk of an attack like the one that happened in Paris...where several individuals with arms and explosives launch actions, perhaps even in several places at the same time."

Authorities across Europe, the Middle East and Washington are trying to determine how a network of French and Belgian nationalists with links to Islamic extremists in Syria plotted and carried out the deadliest violence in France since World War II – and how many may still be on the loose.

COMMENT:  And you may be sure that the very bad guys are planning something for the United States.  We're the Great Satan.  Guys who want to play in the World Series of terror come here.

One thing to note:  France is one of the most pro-Arab countries in Europe, and yet France has seen heavy terror attacks from Muslims.  That also happened in the 1980s, and is proof that "policies" of countries don't drive terror.  Terror is based on an ideology that transcends "policies."

November 21, 2015       Permalink 

WARNING – THIS IS WHAT THEY'RE TEACHING OUR CHILDREN – FROM 10:56 A.M. ET:  A new Pew survey shows that millenials are more comfortable with certain forms of speech restriction than are older Americans.

American Millennials are far more likely than older generations to say the government should be able to prevent people from saying offensive statements about minority groups, according to a new analysis of Pew Research Center survey data on free speech and media across the globe.

We asked whether people believe that citizens should be able to make public statements that are offensive to minority groups, or whether the government should be able to prevent people from saying these things. Four-in-ten Millennials say the government should be able to prevent people publicly making statements that are offensive to minority groups, while 58% said such speech is OK.

Even though a larger share of Millennials favor allowing offensive speech against minorities, the 40% who oppose it is striking given that only around a quarter of Gen Xers (27%) and Boomers (24%) and roughly one-in-ten Silents (12%) say the government should be able to prevent such speech.

Compared with people we surveyed in dozens of nations, Americans as a whole are less likely to favor the government being able to prevent speech of any kind. The debate over what kind of speech should be tolerated in public has become a major story around the globe in recent weeks – from racial issues on many U.S. college campuses to questions about speech laws in Europe in the wake of concerns about refugees from the Middle East and the terrorist attacks in Paris.

Overall, our global survey found that a majority of Americans say that people should be able to say offensive things about minority groups publicly. Two-thirds of Americans say this, compared with a median of 35% among the 38 nations we polled.

COMMENT:  The first thing one learns about free speech is that it is inherently offensive.  We don't need a First Amendment to protect popular speech, and no one in human history has gone to prison for agreeing with his government. 

The numbers among Millenials is disturbing, but we hope that with maturity, and experience in the world outside universities, they'll change.  But they're clearly being taught some bad ideas about free speech by some very inadequate educators.

November 21,  2015     Permalink